A mere eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager scolded him for not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason for Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. As the England international swept in his second strike to restore his side's advantage, the boss discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, are somehow just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. History, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, while the positive results have accumulated.
As per the data, in only two games has the side registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club which has just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa look strangely fragile – yet right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on their star man to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened when facing United.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, arced just inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents managed more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa must confront as the season progresses. The forward, surely, will not continue to thrashing the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be another reality in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the force he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the hero faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
